Alan Al Yussef
Doctoral researcher and pedagogical staff
About me:
Hello! I am a postdoctoral researcher in economics at the department of Applied Economics (APEC) at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB). I research how economic circumstances shape collective behavior and how institutions moderate this dynamic. The current focus of my research is on political preferences and voting behavior. For my research, besides tapping into the rich body of theory and methodologies economics offers, I often wander beyond the disciplinary boundaries in search of different perspectives and new insights. My oft-visited territories are sociology, political science and social psychology.
In addition to my research activities, I have served as a teaching assistant for Microeconomics and Public Choice courses. Additionally, I have supervised several bachelor’s theses and oversaw research projects for the course “Research Methods in Economics and Management.” In these roles, I liked to assign tasks to students that prompted them to explore the social, political, and cultural aspects of the economy. Their enthusiasm for these questions was truly inspiring.
Research area:
Somewhere between political economy, microeconomics, political science, economic sociology
Publications:
» Journal articles:
Abstract. Polarization is increasingly seen as a phenomenon with far reaching and precarious consequences that extend beyond politics. Despite the extensive attention polarization has received, two crucial aspects of this phenomenon remain relatively understudied: electoral polarization and its socioeconomic drivers. We argue that socioeconomic anxieties—the fear of losing one’s social position due to economic insecurity—play an important role in driving electoral polarization. To measure the level of electoral polarization, we develop an intuitive metric based on the dyadic ideological distance between voters. Using elections data from federal elections in Belgium, we study the electoral outcomes of the 300 Flemish municipalities, where we find a significant link between risk of poverty, income, and unemployment, on the one hand, and the level of electoral polarization on the other. This provides empirical support to our overarching hypothesis that socioeconomic anxiety plays a centrifugal electoral impact, amplifying the appeal of polar parties, thereby increasing the level of electoral polarization.
Abstract. Political selection is crucial for the functioning of democracy. However, the practice—in education and sports contexts—of artificially dividing school-age children into different age groups leads to a considerable bias in this selection. The probability of becoming a (successful) politician depends on individuals’ relative age. Being born shortly after the cut-off date significantly increases the probability that an individual will be politically successful later in life. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find strong evidence of such relative age effect (RAE) among a large sample of Belgian federal parliamentarians over the period 1950–2019 (N = 4032), but not among municipal councillors (N = 7387), nor among municipal candidates (N = 36,740) in the 2018 election. The estimated overrepresentation of federal members of the parliament (MPs) born immediately after the cut-off date is up to 90% compared to politicians born just before the cut-off date. The overrepresentation is observed over the whole period and thus seems to be deeply rooted in the political system. We find the RAE to have a gendered dimension: The effect is driven by early-born male politicians’ overrepresentation. No significant RAE was found among female politicians.
» Book chapters:
Working papers:
Dozing Off the Centre: Low Turnout, High Polarisation
Alan Al Yussef & Bruno Heyndels
Abstract. In this paper we examine the impact of voter turnout on electoral polarisation—the degree to which voters choose parties further away from the centre of the ideological space. Studying electoral results from the Dutch general elections in 2010, 2012 and 2017 on the local level, we show that polarisation is consistently, substantially, and significantly higher in municipalities with low levels of voter turnout. If centrist voters are more likely to abstain, low turnout implies the overrepresentation of polar voters. We show that the further away from the centre of the ideological spectrum, the more a party benefits from low turnout. This pattern is especially pronounced at both ends of the Left-Right ideological space. This overrepresentation of polar voters draws a wedge between the level of polarisation of actual voters and that of the wider population of voters. To provide causal evidence on the impact of turnout on polarisation, we employ an instrumental variable approach, where we use the amount of rainfall on election day as an exogenous variable.
A Political Economy of Culture Wars: Polarisation, Sticky Preferences and Mobilisation
Alan Al Yussef
Abstract. This paper presents a theoretical model explaining—from the supply side—why political parties may increase campaign resources devoted to certain issues, even without shifts in public demand. The core mechanism, examined within a two-dimensional issue space, is that heightened internal polarisation on one dimension decreases the marginal productivity of campaigning on that dimension, pushing parties to redirect resources toward the other dimension. Thus, the model illustrates how intra-group polarisation, by altering relative campaign costs across issue dimensions, contributes directly to broader inter-group polarisation. Additionally, external shocks affecting voter positions across both issue dimensions can encourage parties to reallocate resources away from the more volatile dimension to the one characterised by more sticky preferences, enhancing campaign cost-effectiveness. This dynamic helps clarify why, following significant economic disruptions, political parties often–paradoxically–increase their emphasis on cultural and identity-related issues rather than economic policy. Similarly, rising income inequality can intensify internal polarisation on economic issues, making campaigning on cultural and identity-related issues relatively more efficient.