Alan Al Yussef
Postdoctoral researcher
Research
Research area:
Somewhere between political economy, microeconomics, political science, economic sociology
Publications:
» Journal articles:
Abstract. Polarization is increasingly seen as a phenomenon with far reaching and precarious consequences that extend beyond politics. Despite the extensive attention polarization has received, two crucial aspects of this phenomenon remain relatively understudied: electoral polarization and its socioeconomic drivers. We argue that socioeconomic anxieties—the fear of losing one’s social position due to economic insecurity—play an important role in driving electoral polarization. To measure the level of electoral polarization, we develop an intuitive metric based on the dyadic ideological distance between voters. Using elections data from federal elections in Belgium, we study the electoral outcomes of the 300 Flemish municipalities, where we find a significant link between risk of poverty, income, and unemployment, on the one hand, and the level of electoral polarization on the other. This provides empirical support to our overarching hypothesis that socioeconomic anxiety plays a centrifugal electoral impact, amplifying the appeal of polar parties, thereby increasing the level of electoral polarization.
Abstract. Political selection is crucial for the functioning of democracy. However, the practice—in education and sports contexts—of artificially dividing school-age children into different age groups leads to a considerable bias in this selection. The probability of becoming a (successful) politician depends on individuals’ relative age. Being born shortly after the cut-off date significantly increases the probability that an individual will be politically successful later in life. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find strong evidence of such relative age effect (RAE) among a large sample of Belgian federal parliamentarians over the period 1950–2019 (N = 4032), but not among municipal councillors (N = 7387), nor among municipal candidates (N = 36,740) in the 2018 election. The estimated overrepresentation of federal members of the parliament (MPs) born immediately after the cut-off date is up to 90% compared to politicians born just before the cut-off date. The overrepresentation is observed over the whole period and thus seems to be deeply rooted in the political system. We find the RAE to have a gendered dimension: The effect is driven by early-born male politicians’ overrepresentation. No significant RAE was found among female politicians.
» Book chapters:
Working papers:
Turnout and the Distortion of Representation: The Case of Electoral Polarisation
Alan Al Yussef
Abstract. In this paper we examine the impact of voter turnout on electoral polarisation—the degree to which voters are dispersed in their party choice in elections. Low turnout alters the ideological composition of the electorate by mobilising voters who are most alienated from the expected governing coalition. We develop a theoretical model showing that heterogenous turnout constitutes a mean-preserving spread of the population’s ideological distribution. The resulting distortion in representation is not arbitrary: the electorate appears more polarised than the wider population. Studying electoral results from the Dutch general elections in 2010, 2012 and 2017 on the local level, we show that polarisation is consistently, substantially, and significantly higher in municipalities with low levels of voter turnout. If centrist voters are more likely to abstain, low turnout implies the overrepresentation of polar voters. We show that the farther a party is from the ideological centre, the more it benefits from low turnout, with this pattern especially pronounced at both ends of the left–right spectrum.
A Political Economy of Culture Wars: Polarisation, Sticky Preferences and Mobilisation
Alan Al Yussef
Abstract. This paper presents a theoretical model explaining—from the supply side—why political parties may increase campaign resources devoted to certain issues, even without shifts in public demand. The core mechanism, examined within a two-dimensional issue space, is that heightened internal polarisation on one dimension decreases the marginal productivity of campaigning on that dimension, pushing parties to redirect resources toward the other dimension. Thus, the model illustrates how intra-group polarisation, by altering relative campaign costs across issue dimensions, contributes directly to broader inter-group polarisation. Additionally, external shocks affecting voter positions across both issue dimensions can encourage parties to reallocate resources away from the more volatile dimension to the one characterised by more sticky preferences, enhancing campaign cost-effectiveness. This dynamic helps clarify why, following significant economic disruptions, political parties often–paradoxically–increase their emphasis on cultural and identity-related issues rather than economic policy. Similarly, rising income inequality can intensify internal polarisation on economic issues, making campaigning on cultural and identity-related issues relatively more efficient.